Edge is the difference between our AI's prediction and the bookmaker's odds. Higher edge = better value bet. We default to 20%+ edge picks.
20%
0%50%
Confidence is how certain our AI model is about a prediction (0-100%). Higher confidence means stronger signal. We default to 70%+ confidence picks.
70%
0%100%
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Combined odds--
Potential return--
Stake €
37W‑11L
Record
77%
Win Rate
+€3,525
Season P/L
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Season Stats
77%
Win Rate
+€3,525
Season Profit
37W‑11L
Record
1.86
Avg Odds
This month+€870
Best pickAston Villa Draw @3.6
Pick distribution
52%
Home Win
35%
Away Win
13%
Draw
Bankroll Tracker
Current balance
€9,450
-€550 from starting bankroll
€0€9,450 / €10,000€10K
Started€10,000
Total wagered€4,820
Total returned€4,270
Net P/L on picks-€550
Season profit (+€3,525) reflects closing line value, not all bets placed.
Latest News
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EV Academy
What is Expected Value (EV)?
Expected value is the average result of a bet if placed infinitely. A positive EV bet means the odds offered are better than the true probability — this is the foundation of profitable betting.
Formula: EV = (Probability × Odds) - 1 Example: 66% win probability @ 2.70 odds = (0.66 × 2.70) - 1 = +78% EV
Edge %
Edge = our probability - bookmaker's implied probability. A 10% edge means we believe the true odds are significantly better than what the bookmaker offers. We only show picks with edge above 5%.
Kelly Criterion Staking
We use fractional Kelly (25%) to size bets: Stake = (Edge / (Odds - 1)) × 0.25 × Bankroll. This maximises long-run growth while limiting drawdown risk. Stakes are capped at €200 per bet.
Confidence vs Edge
Confidence = our model's probability for the outcome. Edge = how much better that is than the bookmaker's price. A high confidence pick with poor odds can have low (or negative) edge. Always bet edge, not just confidence.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
If your odds at time of bet are better than the closing line (final pre-match odds), you have positive CLV. Consistent positive CLV is the strongest predictor of long-term profitability.